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2017 Pirates Trade Value Rankings

Collage photo credits from MLB.com, MILB.com,Pittsburgh Trib Review and Pittsburgh Post Gazette

 

Over the past five to ten years, it has become a staple in baseball circles to determine the value of a player.   The best way to determine the value of a player is to do it in the terms of a trade where you must take all the factors of a player into account: age, years of control, contract, position scarcity and most importantly, ability.

Bill Simmons started the craze at ESPN (and then on now-defunct Grantland) with NBA players, which led Dave Cameron to adapt it for the Trade Value rankings of MLB players at Fangraphs.  Here at TPOP we do our own Trade Value Rankings, but it is just for the Pirates.  The theory is that the player ranked 15th could be traded for the player ranked 22nd plus something else.

In years past I ranked the Top 25 and wrote a summary on all the players.   This year I ranked ALL players that I thought had even the littlest trade value and came up with 61 players.   They are ranked in the chart below.   We’ll discuss the rankings today and get creative tomorrow.

Remember, years of control and contract status are VERY important in trade value; this not only means their contract but Rule 5 eligibility and minor league options as well.   The player’s age during the 2017 season is determined by the standard July 1st cutoff date and their projected 2017 level assignment is shown, as well.   On to the rankings:

Rank   2017 Options Location /Service Time Contract Guaranteed Money Min
   
Age /
   
  Max yrs
1 Starling Marte 28 2 4.07 6 yr/$31M (14-19)+20-21 opts 25,000,000 3/5
2 Gregory Polanco 25 2 2.103 5 yrs/$35M (17-21) & 22-23 team opt 35,000,000 5/7
3 Gerrit Cole 27 2 3.111 1st Yr Arb 3,750,000 1/3
4 Andrew McCutchen 30 3 7.123 6 yr/$51.5M (12-17)+18 opt 14,500,000 1/2
5 Francisco Cervelli 31 0 6.146 3 yr/$31M (17-19) 31,000,000 3/3
6 Jameson Taillon 25 1 0.11 1st Yr on 40 Man (Arb after ’19) 535,000 1/6
7 Austin Meadows 22 3 AAA Rule 5 elig. after 2017 0/6.5
8 Jung Ho Kang 30 3 2 4 yr/$11M (15-18)+19 opt 5,750,000 2/3
9 Ivan Nova 30 0 6.024 3 yr/$26M (17-19) 26,000,000 3/3
10 Tyler Glasnow 23 2 0.066 1st Yr on 40 Man (Arb after ’19) 86,500 0/6.5
11 Josh Harrison 29 1 5.033 4 yr/$27.3M (15-18)+19-20 opts 7,500,000 2/4
12 Mitch Keller 21 3 High A Rule 5 elig. after 2018 0/6.5
13 Kevin Newman, SS 23 3 AAA/AA Rule 5 elig. after 2018 0/6.5
14 Josh Bell 24 2 0.053 1st Yr (Arb after ’19) 535,000 1/6
15 Jordy Mercer 30 1 4.095 2nd Yr Arbitration 4,325,000 1/2
16 Ke’Bryan Hayes 20 3 High A Rule 5 elig. after 2019 0/6.5
17 Cole Tucker 20 3 AA Rule 5 elig. after 2018 0/6.5
18 Tony Watson 32 2 ML 3rd Yr Arbitration 5,600,000 1/1
19 David Freese 34 2 ML 2 yr/$11M (17-18)+19 cl opt 6,250,000 2/3
20 John Jaso 33 0 7.032 2 yr/$8M (16-17) 4,000,000 1/1
21 Daniel Hudson 30 2 6.117 2 yr/$11M (17-18) 5,500,000 2/2
22 Juan Nicasio 30 0 5.084 3rd Yr Arbitration 3,625,000 1/1
23 Chris Stewart 35 0 6.091 2 yr/$3M (16-17)+18 opt 1,650,000 1/2
24 Adam Frazier 25 3 0.101 1st Yr (Arb after ’19) 535,000 1/6
25 Taylor Hearn 22 3 High A Rule 5 elig. after 2018 0/6.5
26 Chad Kuhl 24 2 0.079 1st Yr (Arb after ’19) 535,000 0/6.5
27 Elias Diaz 26 1 0.167 3rd Year on 40-Man (Arb after ’19) 129,750 1/6
28 Nick Kingham 25 1 ML/AAA 3rd Year on 40-Man 129,750 0/6.5
29 Will Craig 23 3 High A Rule 5 elig. after 2019 0/6.5
30 Steven Brault 25 2 0.037 1st Yr on 40 Man (Arb after ’19) 86,500 0/6.5
31 Trevor Williams 25 3 0.027 2nd Year on 40-Man (Arb after ’19) 86,500 0/6.5
32 Phil Goselin 27 1 2.085 Arb after ‘17 535,000 1/4
33 Drew Hutchison 26 1 3.165 2nd Yr Arb (of 4) 2,300,000 1/3
34 Felipe Rivero 25 0 1.162 2nd Yr on 40 man (Arb after ’17) 535,000 1/5
35 Clay Holmes 24 3 AAA/AA 1st Year on 40-Man 43,250 0/6.5
36 Gage Hinsz 21 3 High A Rule 5 elig. after 2019 0/6.5
37 Jared Hughes 30 1 4.162 3rd Yr Arb (of 4) 2,825,000 1/2
38 Antonio Bastardo 31 0 7.054 2 yr/$12M (16-17) 6,500,000 1/1
39 Alen Hanson 24 0 0.038 1st Yr (Arb after ’19) 535,000 0/6.5
40 Max Moroff 24 2 0.004 2nd Year on 40-Man 86,500 0/6.5
41 Pat Light 26 2 0.054 2nd Year on 40-Man 86,500 0/6.5
42 Yeudy Garcia 24 3 AA Rule 5 elig. after 2017 0/6.5
43 Luis Escobar 21 3 Low A Rule 5 elig. after 2018 0/6.5
44 Edgar Santana 25 3 AAA Rule 5 elig. after 2017 0/6.5
45 Dovydas Neverauskas 24 3 ML/AAA 1st Year on 40-Man 43,250 0/6.5
46 Travis Macgregor 20 3 SS Rule 5 elig. after 2020 0/6.5
47 Max Kranick 19 3 SS Rule 5 elig. after 2020 0/6.5
48 Braeden Ogle 19 3 SS Rule 5 elig. after 2020 0/6.5
49 Wade LeBlanc 32 0 3.131 1 yr/$0.8M (17)+18 opt 750,000 1/2
50 A.J. Schugel 28 1 1.004 2nd Yr (Arb after ’18) 129,750 1/5
51 Tyler Webb 26 3 Rule 5 pick 1st Yr (Arb after ’19) 535,000
52 Gift Ngoepe 27 2 ML/AAA 2nd Year on 40-Man 86,500
53 Chris Bostick 24 2 ML/AAA 2nd Year on 40-Man 86,500
54 Jose Osuna 24 3 ML/AAA 1st Year on 40-Man 43,250
55 Jordan Luplow 23 3 AA Rule 5 elig. after 2017 0/6.5
56 Barrett Barnes 25 3 AAA not selected in Rule 5 0/6.5
57 Adrian Valerio 20 3 Low A Rule 5 elig. after 2018 0/6.5
58 Stephen Alemais 22 3 High A Rule 5 elig. after 2019 0/6.5
59 Michael De La Cruz 20 3 Low A Rule 5 elig. after 2017 0/6.5
60 Tyler Eppler 24 3 AAA/AA Rule 5 elig. after 2017 0/6.5
61 Pablo Reyes 23 3 AA not selected in Rule 5 0/6.5


Gerrit Cole
could have the most trade value on the team as a true ace is in more demand than ever, but he is a pitcher that showed chinks in the armor last year and…he’s a pitcher …and could get injured or lose velocity or pull a Steve Blass.Notes:

  • The top of the list is heavy in established players, which is good.  An organization like the Brewers might not have a major leaguer at its top spot and this is a symbol of rebuilding.
  • The 40-man status might play a part in some rosters decisions near the tail end of this year.   While it might be nice to have Kevin Newman get a cup of coffee near the tail end of this year, he doesn’t need to have a 40 man roster spot until after 2018.   This could keep a 40 man spot open for another player marinating in AAA.
  • Speaking of 40 man players in AAA, flamethrowing relievers Edgar Santana and Dovydas Neverauskas are back-to-back on the rankings but Santana gets the edge because he doesn’t need added to the 40 man until after 2017.
  • Felipe Rivero seemed like a steal for three months of Mark Melancon, but he’s out of options so he can’t get right in AAA anymore without being lost to waivers.
  • Steven Brault and his buddy Trevor Williams have service times of 0.027 and 0.037 respectively.   If 110 days of service time seem to be the Rule 5 tipping point then these guys might be up in July versus June as 5th starters or relievers to gain an extra year of control.
  • Mitch Keller might be lower on the list than some might have guessed, but he’s a prospect that has yet to succeed at AA, too early to have as much value as many would think.
  • The trade value of Starling Marte (or Gregory Polanco) is more than player 31-61 combined.
  • The NFL and its non guaranteed contracts and the Francisco Liriano trade have made me list “guaranteed money” and min-max years.  All minor leaguers have no guaranteed money and 0 year of min control as well as 6.5 of max control.   Arbitration and contracts give the range of years of control and guaranteed monies.

Tomorrow’s article will apply all these values in a practical application.

About Michael Bradley (56 Articles)
Michael is a Pirates contributor to The Point of Pittsburgh. Michael is former submarine officer and Naval Academy grad. He now runs a small consulting firm and does veteran related job fairs. He is a SABR member and regularly attends Altoona Curve games to scout the Pirate prospects.
Contact: Twitter

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