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A Dissenting Perspective on BAMTech Revenue

Disney purchased majority stake in BAMTech back in 2017, but did teams ever use the funds on payroll? Photo from the Associated Press

The MLB offseason is starting to heat up and it feels much earlier than last year's almost glacial pace. This is especially true for the Pirates, who are among the league leaders with three acquisitions from the free agent market, albeit not expensive ones by any means. This of course will anger some fans who will never be happy unless the team spends 'enough' on these acquisitions. It's in this spirit that I still hear from several corners of the Pirates' interweb that the team needs to use the BAMTech revenue to finally make that big free agent acquisition that has forever eluded them.

I personally feel like this notion has become so clich that most fans probably have no idea what it actually means, just believing there's extra money to spend because they heard others say there is. They aren't wrong, but I am speaking to how the payment came about and the practical issues surrounding it. Kevin and the site have done a great job of covering this issue in the past, so I won't go much into the details surrounding the payment; rather, I would like to examine whether it appears that money has been used'it certainly doesn't seem like it'but more importantly, look into possible reasons as to why.

Please don't take this as me stating that I don't think this money should have been used to acquire players'I don't really care about that'rather, it's an attempt to explain why it probably wasn't. Back when the news was actually prevalent, I was skeptical it would ever be used as such, and time has only made that estimation clearer.

Upon further review, multiple explanations exist for teams not using this revenue on players'player involvement in the sale, the nature of a one-time payment, and budgeting issues'and it seems more than likely that the business side of baseball got in the way of how fans would like their teams to spend.

Please note, these are just my opinions based on my experience in business. I'm not saying this is or isn't why the Pirates may or may not have spent the BAMTech money; rather, it's a different point of view, not just 'Nutting's Wallet' talk. Also, different businesses perform their accounting differently, so my assertions could be off based on my singular experiences.

What follows are the reasons I believe for what may or may not have happened with the BAMTech funds from most to least likely.

Lack of Player Involvement

To make one thing very clear'I'm not sure I agree with this argument on its face, but I do find it most likely, depending on the initial investment structure.

Most reports claim that every team spent $4 million'or $1 million over four years'as an initial investment in MLB Advanced Media. Also, most reports regarding the sale claim that teams are receiving the revenue from the sale, which would make sense in turn; however, many are insinuating that owners are benefiting from the windfall, not teams. So, my question is, which is it?

If owners truly made this investment independent of their clubs and out of their own pockets, I would say the team'and players in turn'have no right to it. It would be no different than any other personal investment by the owner unrelated to the team. However, if it was a payment that passed through the business, then any revenue resulting from the sale of the investment needs to flow back to the initial investor, in this case the team. Then, in turn, players would see a portion of that revenue, as any revenue stream for the team should rightfully trickle down to them. Is this truly the case, though?

If you enjoy reading dry, academic research on albeit interesting topics, this paper by John Charles Bradbury is for you. I read it because it covered whether the players' share of revenue was going down; however, I didn't expect to find this interesting nugget:

The MLBAM venture increased league revenue by expanding the distribution of its same labor product more widely to garner uncaptured revenue. In addition, the revenue is shared equally across teams; therefore, teams cannot increase revenue through this channel by improving the individual team product. Though the returns to winning remain positive and increasing, the marginal contribution of labor to MLBAM revenues is small and thus a decline in labor's share of income is to be expected. The gains do not result from an increased marginal revenue product of players, and therefore this revenue should not be expected to flow to players in wages.

He echoes the same sentiment in the conclusion, this time more clearly:

Furthermore, the success of MLB's online media venture MLBAM provided a new revenue stream that was equally shared across teams and did not increase player's marginal revenue products. Thus, player wages should not be expected to grow with this revenue stream and thus the decline in players' share of income is expected.

Okay, this is confusing, so what does it mean? Bradbury references Marginal Revenue Product, which in this case is essentially what a player's production is worth on the market. I believe the argument goes that since this money was not the direct result of player production going up, that economically speaking, they can't expect their share of revenue to go up based on this revenue stream. Basically, the BAMTech sale was happening whether the players were good or bad, so they shouldn't expect a slice of the pie.

Bradbury explains this theory using studies, graphs, and what I assume to be sound economic theory; however, on a certain level it's kind of hard to buy in to. Sure, the players had nothing to do with this sale, but without their games, does the streaming service ever take off? On the other hand, Disney isn't buying this service to strictly show Major League Baseball games. They used it to launch an updated version of the ESPN app, stream a wide variety of sports content, and will be using it to power their upcoming streaming service'Disney+'which is Disney's bid to compete with the likes of Netflix and Hulu.

Yes, on an economic level, this reasoning makes sense, but I'd imagine it's one the players wouldn't be too fond of hearing.

Merely a One-Time Payment

Forget the 2016 payment which gave Disney a 33% stake in ownership of BAMTech'this payment came with much less fanfare, as apparently approximately $33 million per team isn't enough to make waves'as we are only talking the 2017 purchase which made Disney the majority owner.

This one-time anomaly makes it difficult for teams to sink long-term funds into a player for which it is going to take a long-term commitment to sign. Sure, it would have made sense to get into the market of pillow contracts for 2018'Mike Moustakas or Carlos Gonzalez, for example'but not as much for the more expensive players. Consider it like this'does it make sense to put a down payment on a car with a bonus that you won't be able to afford the monthly payment on? Obviously, the answer is no, and if the Pirates weren't going to have the money in 2019 and beyond to cover the rest of the contract, then a deal specifically using these funds wouldn't have made sense either.

While we've seen no indications of such purchases, a large capital expenditure'such as buildings or equipment'would have made more sense, given the one-time nature of such expense. Debt paydown would also be a reasonable outcome for the funds.

Yearly Budgets

This is always a sore spot with fans, who seem to think the Pirates are the only team who sets a budget'the 'Self-Imposed Budget' if you will'but this simply isn't the case. Businesses set budgets, and an understanding of how they work sheds some light on why the BAMTech payment may not have been used.

First, this agreement was made public in August 2017, and the timing is important. According to the leaked financials from 2008, the team runs a Fiscal Year from November to October, meaning that that 12-month span is a year'at least financially speaking'for the Pirates. This lines up with the dates predicated in the CBA as far as calculating yearly payroll, which is December 2 to December 1, as well as any particular baseball season, which runs anywhere between March and September.

Again, this is all important from a budgeting standpoint. Personally, I started working on my company's January to December 2019 budget this past September. Following a similar timeline, the Pirates may have started determining their Fiscal 2018 budget (November 2017 to October 2018) sometime in July 2017, if not earlier. For something as temperamental as a $1.58 billion transaction, I can almost guarantee that the accounting department would be advised not to budget for any revenue from the sale, even if they had an idea an agreement was being worked on. Yes, the item still could have been added into the budget because the news came in August, but it's also possible that the club still wouldn't have included it in any kind of budget because 1.) it's an extraordinary classification and 2.) they didn't have a clear enough idea how much it would be until they actually received it.

Another budgeting issue surrounding this payment is year-to-year budgeting and spending. As much as I think Jim Bowden suggests horrible trade ideas in his post-GM analysis days, this is the closest idea we have on when the payment was indeed made:

If the payment was truly made in the first quarter of 2018, that would be somewhere around January to March 2018, which is somewhere in the Pirates second quarter of Fiscal 2018. This means it is considered revenue in Fiscal 2018, and while many fans don't like to hear this, revenue and expenses are basically contained to the fiscal year in which they happen, meaning that the team isn't going to look at revenue gained in 2018 and think 'We can spend this in 2019 and beyond.' More than likely, that revenue hit the income statement in first quarter 2018, showed as a large over-budget item that was explained in the financials and any gains or losses'more than likely gains'attributed to those funds in Fiscal 2018 were rolled into Retained Earnings forever to be just another amount on the Balance Sheet.

For 2019, revenue and expenses will be based on what the club plans on making and spending from November 2018 to October 2019, and this obviously doesn't include a payment that happened early in 2018. Also, businesses don't budget to lose money, and basing large expenses on large revenue streams that aren't in the same time frame will result in said losses.

*****

This topic is an emotional one for fans'especially Pirate fans, who view ownership as a group who never miss an opportunity to make a dollar. While many won't find solace in this, it's hard to say whether any team used these new funds to their advantage in 2018. Overall, payroll was down from 2017 to 2018, but this was after a very different offseason then the game has ever experienced. On a more granular level, the Braves saw a profit increase of roughly the very $50 million the payment was estimated to be, giving circumstantial evidence of benefiting financially from the windfall.

Simply put, this was an attempt to look at the payout from a different perspective'purely a business one. The opinion, bordering on undeniable truth for many, of teams having to spend this money was all too common and somewhat too easy. Take this for what it is'an unemotional, business perspective.

Fans don't like it, but sports are only that'business masquerading as entertainment. Unfortunately, fiduciary responsibility and customer service often don't go together and the shrewd business decision often wins out.

Ethan is a Pirates contributor to The Point of Pittsburgh. An Accountant by trade, Ethan is passionate about the business of sports and won't apologize for enjoying it more than the actual games. He's a believer in analytics, hasn't played a game since little league, and can be contacted via Twitter @EthanHullihen

9 Comments on A Dissenting Perspective on BAMTech Revenue

  1. Well done, Ethan! It is refreshing to read a piece about the business side of baseball. Until we see financials published for the Pirates, we will never truly know their capacity to spend, their profit/loss, or the true extent of all expenditures. The argument of “they need to spend more money” falls apart without financial data to show the capacity for spending.

    • Ethan Hullihen // December 20, 2018 at 10:36 AM //

      First of all, thanks for the kind words and for reading. If you find the business side 'refreshing', check out my back catalog on the site. It's my focus because it's what I find most interesting, and I think I provide a lot of analysis you can't find anywhere else.

      As for the finances, I largely agree. Not only do fans speak out on topics they usually don't understand'business and finances'but they vilify the team based on incomplete information. I'm a proponent of facts, and the truth is we don't have enough of them to truly make determinations on the team's financial standing. Do I believe there's more money? Yes, I do. The problem is we don't truly know how much, but I also don't begrudge a business making profits, as that's the goal of any business. For some reason, many fans don’t seem to believe in that.

  2. Jack Schroeffel // December 20, 2018 at 10:01 AM //

    See Disney Financial Report

  3. The Pirate organization has already won the PR battle. They have managed expectations to the point where almost no one expects them to seriously compete for the WS in their lifetime. I seem to remember that being one of the goals I think. Managing expectations is part of business so they are truly good businessmen.
    But since it is ski season there are other more important concerns no doubt.

  4. Phillip C-137 // December 20, 2018 at 10:32 PM //

    Ethan, I appreciate your thoughts on this subject, but there seems to be so much wrong in the Owners position.

    1. If the owners individually invested in MLBAM did they offer to let the players union participate? If not, isn’t this akin to insider trading? Show us the four $1 million checks. Were they personal or franchise checks or just an offset of monies between MLB and the teams? Don’t the owners have a fiduciary responsibility to their franchise?

    2. If the owners invested in MLBAM as a Franchise asset (think new office furniture) that would seem to justify them keeping the $$$ in the franchise. But since MLBAM is directly tied to the games (no players no games) it’s more like adding 1000 new seats down along the foul lines and claiming the players didn’t help pay for the 1000 new seats so they don’t get any of the revenue from those seats.

    Concerning the Bradbury quotes. Uncaptured revenue is making sure everyone in the park has a ticket, it is not all revenues everywhere future and present. If he wants to call it what it is – new revenue, that is true but it also alerts the players. (I suspect MLB paid Mr Bradbury for his “academic research” report. Think a Big Tobacco research paper.)

    Another Bradburyism. “the marginal contribution of labor to MLBAM revenues is small” Let’s cut to the chase – what a CROCK. MLBAM has the MLB cable channel, MLBTV, the MLB website, the team sites, pays the reporters and also does the MLB online ticket sales. Isn’t every bit of this related to the games? No players, no games. (There are other elements, but it’s growth is probably attributable 90% or more to the baseball games.)

    More Bradbury tripe. Marginal Revenue Product. This has ZERO bearing on the subject and is just thrown in to sound Academic. If I get 10% of revenue, the fact that ownership found new revenue streams has ZERO to do with me working 10% harder. Ownership found a way to sell more baseball,
    doesn’t want to give the players their cut and is trying to justify it. And what Disney’s plans are after gaining control have ZERO to do with the issue.

    “The nature of a one-time payment” – Whether the $$$ comes in dribs and drabs or 1 big chunk doesn’t really have any bearing. The payment could just as easily have been paid over 4 years.

    Budgets. Budgets are a plan. The Income Statement is what happened. You make the point “I can almost guarantee that the accounting department would be advised not to budget for any revenue from the sale”. How about “budget for a crowd of 3,000 on Fridays”? You can just as easily figure if the players get 45% of revenue, then 45% of $50 million is $22,500,000. So we can sign player X for 3 or 4 years at a total cost of $22.5 mil for example.

    Again, I appreciate the article and apologize for going on a rant.

    • Ethan Hullihen // December 20, 2018 at 11:27 PM //

      Okay, I’m going to try and dissect this and give a reasonable response, but there is a lot to digest:

      Regarding 1-2: I thought I made it fairly clear the owners connection to this was questionable at best. Most reports say it was teams who made the investment and teams receiving the payment. I looked into how many ownership groups changed hands between 2000 and 2018, and it seemed like quite a bit. If it were the owner’s investment, the old owners would be getting the payouts, not their old teams. Again, I think it’s weird for all reports to insinuate the teams are receiving the payments, while everyone assumes the owners are actually the ones benefiting. If they are, it’s only because the Balance Sheets look better afterward. It’s not as if they got $50 million cash payouts in their personal accounts–at least I don’t think so.

      As for Bradbury’s work, I don’t think it’s fair to immediately disparage it, especially if you didn’t read the rest. He states that labor’s percentage of revenue has been falling recently–similar to other industries–and the BAMTech payout is just one possible reason he cites amongst a research paper looking for possible reasons why. He also states that “revenue sharing rules with perverse incentives that punish winning and reward losing may induce teams to pay players less due to reduced marginal revenue products and thus reducing player's share of revenue”, and I’m sure that’s not something owners would like to promote, as you assert.

      Doing a little extra reading, BAMTech was a completely separate company from MLB Advanced Media and appears to have dabbled very little in baseball. It was powering the streaming services for WWE, Sony Playstation VUE services, and HBO, among others. Considering this, it’s not outside the realm of possibility to call this non-baseball activities, even though that again brings up the thorniness of the original investors (MLB) versus the minority investors of the new company (BAMTech).

      Also, why doesn’t how the payment is structured matter? One time versus spread out matters a lot in my opinion. I don’t drive new cars and put extraordinary payouts to what little debt I do have, but if I did, a one-time payment versus multiple installments could make all the difference on whether I could afford to pay cash or not. You can’t buy something with money you don’t have.

      Your final point basically ignores the point I was trying to make about budgeting. Yes, businesses make projections longer out than a year, but a budget generally is looking at 12-month fiscal periods. Not budgeting for the item is one thing, but the money was (probably) still there and available to use. That’s why I brought in the point of it being a one-time payment. If you sign players for your cited $22.5M, you best have the revenue to cover Years 2-4 of those signings in Years 2-4. Simply saying, “well we have $50M this year” won’t matter in 2 to 4 years is my main point. This one-time payment is captured in 2018, and probably won’t factor into decision making several years down the line. Do I know that for a fact? No, but I think it’s at least a rationale assumption.

      Hope I covered that all well enough.

  5. Good article, but one point.

    Everything I have read, including this news release, states Disney now owns a *majority* of BAMTech. MLB Owners still have a 25% stake in what is now Disney’s streaming service (note — there is a chance NHL owners have a small percentage, I am unsure if the NHL 10% original stake in BAM Tech carries over).

    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170808006428/en/Walt-Disney-Company-Acquire-Majority-Ownership-BAMTech

    So, this was not just a one-time $50 Million payment. It is likely a long-term continuing revenue stream for MLB owners. Disney will begin monetizing their massive streaming content sometime in 2019 (Pixar, ESPN, ABC, Disney, Star Wars, Fox, Avengers, etc).

    Now, whether or not those one time and continuing revenues should be invested back in the club is a different question. But make no mistake about it, a stake somewhere between 15 and 25% (depending on how the NHL stake was structured) in a Disney Streaming service is a very nice future revenue stream for baseball owners.

  6. So I randomly dug into this today to try’n speculate what the Pirates budget for this season would be.. and I don’t know if I went about it logically, but I can tell you that I came up with several answers! So I started w/ Forbes. They reported, in April, that the Pirates total revenue was $258M and their Operating Income was $35M. Okay, nice. A starting point.

    So I looked at that number, $258M, and I divided it by total attendance that year (1,919,447) to get Revenue per fan. This could go off the rails, but it roundabout got me to a number that made sense to me, so hold on tight. That $value was $134.41. Taking that number and multiplying it by attendance last year (1,465,317) got me a total revenue guesstimate for 2019 to be ~$197M. Is that way low? Idk! But if you take the 1-time BAMtech windfall of ~$50M and the 23.66% drop in attendance, does that look like a $61M hit? I think it kind of does. So do your operating costs drop that much when the main source of income was a gift? I don’t think so.. so I think that they were, for 2019, entering the year operating in a deficit. My hypothesis is that they cut spending to get back in the black. Forbes estimated that the final player salary expenses last season were $118M, so if they budget this year is ~$75M, that’s a savings of… $43M off the books. If operating costs go down by $43M, we’re now at an operating income for 2019 of $17M ($197M-$180M)

    Option 1: Profit Target

    So let’s say that the FO runs the organization like a business. Nutting’s a business man, right? $17M is about 8.63% profit after expenses are considered, so what if they targeted X% profit and then reinvested the difference into the club for improvements?

    Profit Targets Profit Arb/FA Budget
    5% $9.85 $7.15
    8% $15.76 $1.24

    If the team arbitrarily decided to invest the 0.63% operating income back into the team, and kept the 8% as profit (it’s a business, remember), then we’re talking $1.24M for GMNH to work with.. that’s cheap even for the Pirates. So let’s look at a profit of 5%, that gives GMNH just over $7M to work his magic. If this is the case, that’s why the team was so eager to deal Nova for almost nothing. GMNH has to get some breathing room. If this is the case, the team is still in the red with that budget as the roster is currently constructed and Cervelli will undoubtedly be traded to save the team some money.

    Option 2: % Share of Revenue

    Forbes keeps the data from previous articles like this one and they have all the data from 2009-2018. So I took those Revenue, Player expenses, and Operating Incomes and messed around with them a bit. I think the best indicator of budget is the revenue. Over that span, the Pirates used ~43.15% of their total revenue for their opening roster budget. So using that number, the opening roster has a budget of about $85.01M. As the team is currently constructed, that leaves them about $11.82M to work with… and that’s with Cervelli on the roster. So this is a rosier picture. They can keep Cervelli and they can go after.. whoever is left. But Machado is out.

    To close, Nate Werner wrote an awesome article about the value of being in a race and the ROI on wins in the 85-90 range. I don’t think that the FO necessarily thinks in the long run. I could be wrong, but I don’t think they do.. I think that that logic could enter the discussion at the deadline, and maybe that’s why they pulled the trigger on Archer/Kela? But this far from October, I think they want to be an 80-win team that runs a profit and hopes for a few breaks to get them in the wildcard race. This purgatory is brutal for fans, and especially seeing the depressed values of guys like Grandal or Lowrie or Dozier sign for pennies on the dollar (and sometimes in the division) it’s hard to fathom even a notoriously cheap organization pass on those options. But they’re making money, so it works for them.

    • Kevin Creagh // January 17, 2019 at 8:47 AM //

      Fantastic analysis. I choose to live in your Option #2 world where there is still room in the budget to upgrade at SS and maybe a bullpen guy.

      Thank you.

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