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Chad Kuhl Has The Pirate Gerrit Cole Problem

Why a curve will put Kuhl on the straight and narrow

Chad Kuhl could be an ace, but maybe not in Pittsburgh.
Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images

Colin Moran hit a game-winning grand slam Monday. Gerrit Cole never hit a grand slam as a Pirate. Clearly the Pirates have already won this trade.

But just for the heck of it, let ?s check in on Cole in his first start as an Astro.

7 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 11 K, 1 HR

Classic Cole, giving up a dinger.

All joking aside, Cole looked great in his debut outing in Houston. He put his pitches where he wanted to all night and gave the Astros an ace-quality start even though he ?s now their No. 4 starter. You don ?t exactly have to be an egghead to find out how he did it.

This really shouldn ?t come as that big of a surprise. The Pirates have thrown the highest percentage of fastballs out of any team since 2013. (By comparison, the Astros have the third lowest rate). Cole was a product of that, and two out of every three pitches he threw as a Buc in his career was some variety of heat. It didn ?t matter that it had a below average spin rate and was fairly flat. The Pirates went gun chasing, and Cole had a seemingly unlimited amount of ammunition. But that chasing ultimately became Cole ?s undoing in Pittsburgh.

Eno Sarris theorized for Fangraphs in January that Cole would benefit from a cut down in his fastball usage. That his potentially elite secondary stuff being underutilized because of his volume of heat. Not only that, it lead to some poor sequencing, resulting in a lower than average whiff rate on his offspeed pitches. It ?s hard to put too much stock into just one start, but so far Cole and the Astros proved every one of those theories on his first night.

So be it. Cole is gone and will never pitch again in black and gold. There ?s no sense dwelling on him anymore. They should focus on fixing their mistakes because they ?re doing the same thing with Kuhl.

Kuhl seemed to break out towards the end of last season. As I wrote for Locked On Pirates, he looked like a new pitcher once he added a curveball to his repertoire on May 31. His stats from that date on were:

3.58 ERA, 22.2 K%, 44.3 GB%, 5.4 IP per Start

That is practically a carbon copy of what Jake Arrieta did last year. Having an Arrieta production clone is a fine addition to any rotation, but 2017 Arrieta is not the same as 2015 or even 2016 Arrieta. I don ?t think this is Kuhl ?s potential ceiling, but it might be if the Pirates do not adjust.

Let ?s make some comparisons between Kuhl and Cole, starting with their fastballs. Last year, Cole ?s fastballs averaged 96 MPH with a 2,149 RPM spin rate. Kuhl averaged 95.5 MPH with a 2,161 RPM spin rate. As previously stated, Cole had a 65 percent fastball rate in his time in Pittsburgh. Kuhl threw it 63.3 percent of the time last year.

They both also have plus curveballs, but this is where Kuhl separates himself from the Bucs ? former ace. Kuhl ?s curve is better. I ?ve already written about his hook before and how I love it as an idea. It ?s pitch theory: how much can changing the batter ?s eye level help the pitcher?

As the offseason progressed, I realized I loved it even more as an actual pitch. Out of the 234 pitchers who threw at least 100 curveballs last year, he was 12th in spin rate at 2877 RPM. Kuhl ?s hook doesn ?t have a true 12-6 break, with Brooks Baseball measuring its break at 5 inches horizontally and -6.2 inches vertically, but it is still moving a ton. But he also threw it less than even Cole, just 8.7% of the time after May 31.

So here we have two young fireballers who have low spin rates on their fastballs and high spin on their curves, which traditionally pairs well together for getting swings and misses. Despite that, they both had below average whiff rates on their hooks and their fastballs are not living up to the potential the velocity would suggest.

We already took a look at Cole ?s first start of the year, so let ?s do the same for Kuhl ?s, too. He was charged with four runs, but to be fair, two of them came from a misplayed two-out fly ball to left. Had Sean Rodriguez made the routine play, Kuhl ?s final line might have been:

5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 4 K

Not too shabby from a results standpoint, but he allowed plenty of hard contact. Out of the 20 batted balls the Tigers put in play, 10 had an exit velocity of 95 MPH or higher. Four were over 105 MPH. According to BaseballSavant, last year, batters hit .558 on balls hit 95 MPH or harder and .718 when it ?s 105+ MPH. Detroit batters went 7/10 Sunday. So even with Rodriguez ?s miscue, 5.2 innings of four run ball sounds about right for Kuhl ?s efforts.

There were some encouraging signs from this start, including no free passes and him calming down after a rough first inning, but the quality of hard hit balls is concerning, even if it is a sample size of just one game.

And once again, Kuhl was fastball heavy. According to BaseballSavant, Kuhl threw 40 four-seamers, 11 sinkers and seven curves out of his 85 pitches. 63.8% fastballs, 8.8% curveballs. Right in line with his ratios from a year ago. The only thing that dipped was his whiff rate since the Tigers swung and missed only five times.

It may be time to adjust those rates. It seems to be working for Cole and the other Houston pitcher Kuhl is more frequently linked to: Charlie Morton. For all of the praise the Pirates get for ?fixing ? pitchers, those two never reached their potential in Pittsburgh. Now they ?re 2/5ths of the defending champs’ rotation.

Alex is a Pirates and Duquesne basketball contributor to The Point of Pittsburgh. He graduated from Point Park University with a degree in Journalism and Mass Comm. and a minor in English in 2014. Everything can be explained with numbers. If you want to keep up to date on both teams or have a story idea, you can follow or reach him @AlexJStumpf.

15 Comments on Chad Kuhl Has The Pirate Gerrit Cole Problem

  1. Lee Young // April 4, 2018 at 9:30 AM //

    Didn’t the Astros conversely increase Morton’s fastball rate? And, the Bucs were criticized.

    If so, you can’t have it both ways?

  2. Harry Schade // April 4, 2018 at 9:33 AM //

    Excellent article. Send it to Hurdle, Searsge, Cervelli, Diaz and Kuhl

  3. Bob Stover // April 4, 2018 at 10:46 AM //

    IMHO it may be that Cole did so well simply because most of the Rangers hitters have never seen Cole before. Based on scouting reports they would have been expecting a lot of heat and Cole threw a lot of confusion at them by throwing so many breaking pitches. Whether or not this is a true change of direction by Cole/Astros for all of 2018, or just a single game plan to take advantage of Cole’s 1st time through the AL is unknowable at this point in time. I will be interested in seeing how Cole makes out in inter-league play where the NL hitters know him a little better.

  4. Bob Stover // April 4, 2018 at 10:51 AM //

    I also wonder to what extent the amount of time missed by Cervelli last year contributed to the pitch selections of Cole and Kuhl. Although Cole certainly has the authority to shake off the catcher I’m not sure that Kuhl does. In any event, left to his own devices I believe that Cole likes to challenge hitters with his high heat. It the Astros are trying to change him, he’s going to have to buy in.

  5. Bob Stover // April 4, 2018 at 10:52 AM //

    Where’s that “like” button when you need it.

  6. I always get a kick out of these articles that suggest the difference between a potential #1 starter (in this case, Cole) and a potential #3 starter (Kuhl) is simply coaching and pitch selection, and that they basically have the same stuff (based on cherry picked stats). Quite simply Kuhl cannot carry Cole’s jock strap when it comes to talent, and intensity (Cole has a bull dog mentality built for mlb, and high stakes games in particular). You can’t teach Kuhl the talent needed to bridge the gap between the two.

    The suggestion that Kuhl could be the next coming of Gerrit Cole, with a little tweeking, is just more propaganda aimed at the lowest common denominator (and he’s very prolific in the comments section above me).

  7. Kellen Nebelski // April 4, 2018 at 7:19 PM //

    I don’t necessarily put much stock in Kuhl’s and Cole’s one start. However, I believe you are absolutely correct. Cole’s fastball usage was always ridiculous. MLB hitters can hit a mid-high 90s fastball. Cole always looked like he was trying to blow it by them. Devastating slider, great curve, and good change-up, yet threw 2/3 fastballs? It didn’t add up. If you’re a hitter, you can take some liberties and sit on the fastball more often that way.

    I can remember watching Kuhl for the first time. I had NEVER heard that he threw mid/upper 90s. During the start I watched, he hit 98 and 99 multiple times. I remember thinking, “how in the world is he stinking up the place so badly ” (this was probably around May or June of last year) Your comparisons with Cole are significant. Drop the fastball to 50%, and increase the off-speed repertoire-change speeds, location, and eye level. Basic stuff. Throwing 96 mph “sinkers” at them isn’t going to produce an ace.

  8. There are a few great starters in the NL but most are cut and paste. Especially since they only have to pitch 5 innings

  9. Kellen Nebelski // April 9, 2018 at 2:28 PM //

    Just to elaborate with some context, perhaps… Through 9 games this year, Pirate starters throw either a 4-seam or 2-seam fastball 71.8% of the time. That is the most frequent rate by a LONG ways. Next in line are the Royals’ starters with 65.2% of the time. The median/mode is 54%-55% of the time.

    Taillon: 70.7
    Nova: 76.7
    Williams: 74.8
    Kuhl: 64.5
    Brault: 68.9

    4 of these pitchers (-Kuhl) occupy top-10 spots for highest FB%. Kuhl is 21st. (Out of 149)

    • Kevin Creagh // April 9, 2018 at 3:22 PM //

      I guess they’re going to ‘ride or die’ with this concept.

    • Kellen Nebelski // April 9, 2018 at 6:21 PM //

      It occurs to me that Pirate pitchers lack deep arsenals for the most part. Kuhl and Musgrove are the only two who throw more than 3 pitches (FB, breaking, change). Is that a part of Pirate pitching philosophy as well, I wonder?

  10. Bob Stover // April 10, 2018 at 10:17 AM //

    Jameson Taillon throws four different pitches, two-seam fastball, four seam fastball, curve and change-up.

    • Kellen Nebelski // April 10, 2018 at 2:50 PM //

      I am counting both fastballs together. They all throw a 4-seam and 2-seam. Almost all pitchers do these days.

  11. Bob Stover // April 10, 2018 at 5:04 PM //

    They all throw the four seam. Not everyone throws a two-seam. Some guys who can get it to sink call it a “cutter.” There’s no advantage to a two seam if you can’t get sink on the ball. The Pirates as a team have a great ground ball success rate with the two-seam fastball.

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