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Expanding The Scope On A Derick Brassard Trade

By expanding the parameters of a Derick Brassard trade, the Pens could upgrade the return available.

It appears as if Derick Brassard’s time with the Penguins is drawing nigh. It’s a shame, because when he was obtained last February it seemed like a great match on paper.

But Brassard was never fully healthy and comfortable within the Penguins system. This year has been a near unmitigated disaster. He’s getting caved in on possession (43.6% Corsi For, -7.0% Corsi relative). He’s only contributed 14 points in 37 games, while averaging just over 15 minutes of ice time. And it’s not like he’s excelling at faceoffs, even, with a 48.7% success rate.

So it’s understandable that GM Jim Rutherford is looking to upgrade the 3C position down the stretch, especially with Brassard as a soon-to-be UFA this summer. Thanks to the largesse of Vegas’s GM, George McPhee, the Pens only have a $3M cap hit on Brassard this year. For the purposes of trading him, though, that’s bad.

The Penguins are right up on the salary cap threshold. I mean, you could maybe slip a couple sheets of paper between their metaphorical head and the ceiling. So any deal that is done has to be cap hit neutral.

Josh Yohe of The Athletic (subscription required, worth it) and other outlets have speculated that Dallas might flip Radek Faksa back in a trade. Faksa’s cap hit is only $2.2M this year and he’s under control for next year at the same hit, so that’s good. But does he move the needle for a team that has grander aspirations this postseason ? Like most of the Stars, Faksa is struggling this season. He’s only supplied 16 points (7 goals, 9 assists) in 48 games. His possession numbers have dropped precipitously this year, from his typical 50% down to 45.6%. And his faceoff percentage is 48.4%. All in all, it strikes me as a lateral move, unless you buy into the ‘change of scenery from a dysfunctional franchise’ theory.

On a parallel track, defenseman Justin Schultz is nearing a return to the Pens. When he returns in the near future, the Penguins will have 9 healthy defensemen to use. NHL teams typically only keep 7 on hand, so two guys will need to be re-assigned in some form or fashion. If a defenseman (and his cap hit) are paired with Brassard, perhaps the Penguins could obtain a higher-caliber of center.

Let’s look at all nine defensemen and try to use some process of elimination on who may be moved. I’ve included each player’s cap hit, as it will be germane to the discussion.

  • Kris Letang ($7.25M)
  • Justin Schultz ($5.5M)
  • Brian Dumoulin ($4.1M)
  • Olli Maatta ($4.08M)
  • Jack Johnson ($3.25M)
  • Jamie Oleksiak ($2.14M)
  • Juuso Riikola ($925,000, waiver exempt)
  • Marcus Pettersson ($794,167, waiver exempt)
  • Chad Ruhwedel ($650,000)

OK. I think we can all agree that Letang, Schultz, and Dumoulin are not going anywhere. The Pens have been pining for Schultz’s return since the day his injury was confirmed. Letang is having a Norris Trophy-caliber season and Dumoulin is the defensive stalwart that makes everything tick.

Ruhwedel’s cap hit doesn’t move the needle much in terms of caliber of player available. Riikola will probably be sent down to Wilkes-Barre and Pettersson has been a very shrewd pickup by Rutherford.

That leaves Maatta, Johnson, and Oleksiak. Now we can debate the merits of whether a team would want any of these guys, but the more important is framing the upper and lower bounds of their cap hits to determine what level of player the Penguins could potentially get in a Brassard package.

So adding Oleksiak’s $2.14M to Brassard’s $3M, gets a lower boundary of $5.14M. Likewise, Maatta’s $4.08M gives an upper boundary of $7.08M. Using Capfriendly’s available player tool, sorted by ‘center’ and ‘cap hit between $5M and $7M’ and ‘played 20 games’, returns the following (you can hit the link or click the picture to embiggen):

Time to use process of elimination again. Obviously, take out Brassard himself! Second, let’s make the assumption that no team in prime playoff position is going to want to give up a key asset. Players like Bergeron, Backstrom, Monahan, MacKinnon, and so forth are not going to be moved.

By my count, that leaves 15 possibilities:

  • Ryan Kesler, ANA
  • Derek Stepan, ARI
  • Dylan Larkin, DET
  • Jordan Staal, CAR
  • Matt Duchene, OTT
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, EDM
  • Alexsander Barkov, FLA
  • Travis Zajac, NJD
  • Bo Horvat, VAN
  • Mika Zibanejad, NYR
  • Jeff Carter, LAK
  • Frans Nielsen, DET
  • Kevin Hayes, NYR
  • Brayden Schenn, STL
  • Tyler Bozak, STL

I’m going to take out Larkin, Barkov and Horvat, as they’re key building blocks for their respective teams. You may also wonder why I have Edmonton’s Nugent-Hopkins in, but not either of Koivu and Granlund from Minnesota. Basically, because Peter Chiarelli is an idiot and he’ll trade anyone to save his job at this point.

I’m ruling out Kesler because it appears he’s washed and Jeff Carter because he’s always struck me as being poisonous in a locker room. That brings it down to 10 players.

I think cap hit moving forward is definitely a concern for the Penguins, so I don’t think that Rutherford wants to get a center back that has too much term left on his deal. Maybe next season and maybe the 2020-21 season. So that removes Staal (thru 2023), Zibanejad (thru 2022), and Nielsen (thru 2022). Here’s the final cut of 7 potential players with their cap hits and remaining terms, plus relevant on-ice data.

  • Derek Stepan ($6.5M, thru 2021) — 19 points (8 G, 11 A) in 46 games, 51.4% Corsi, 46.9% Faceoffs
  • Matt Duchene ($6M, thru 2019) — 45 points (20 G, 25 A) in 38 games, 46.0% Corsi, 55.2% Faceoffs
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($6M, thru 2021) — 44 points (15 G, 29 A) in 47 games, 47.4% Corsi, 45.4% Faceoffs
  • Travis Zajac ($5.75M, thru 2021) — 27 points (11 G, 16 A) in 46 games, 49.7% Corsi, 56.8% Faceoffs
  • Kevin Hayes ($5.175M, thru 2019) — 33 points (10 G, 23 A) in 39 games, 50.3% Corsi, 48.3% Faceoffs
  • Brayden Schenn ($5.125M, thru 2020) — 25 points (9 G, 16 A) in 42 games, 52.2% Corsi, 48.0% Faceoffs
  • Tyler Bozak ($5M, thru 2021) — 18 points (6 G, 12 A) in 39 games, 49.4% Corsi, 54.1% Faceoffs

There’s no one guy that checks off all three boxes of point production, possession, and faceoff ability. In a vacuum, Matt Duchene would be the guy I’d pursue. He’s a proven point producer and is outstanding on faceoffs. However, there’s no way Brassard would want to go back to Ottawa and he’d invoke his no-trade for sure. So unless a 3rd team would get involved, I have to rule Duchene out at this point.

I guess it depends on what Rutherford wants. If he wants a steady defensive presence and good faceoff ability for late game draws, then Zajac and his litany of Selke votes is the guy. If he wants just a point producer, then he should target Nugent-Hopkins.

Ultimately, though, I’d personally look at either Kevin Hayes or Tyler Bozak. Hayes is on a short-term deal and his cap hit is such that a deal of Brassard + Oleksiak + 4th round pick may do it. Bozak has been a very solid 3rd line center for many years in Toronto, but he appears to be sucked into the black hole known as the St. Louis Blues. Historically, Bozak has carried possession well and he’s always been good on faceoffs, while chipping in enough offense. I’m not thrilled that he’s under contract through 2021, though. Would the Blues go for Brassard + Oleksiak + Jarry as a package ? Jarry would help with the Blues never-ending search for a goalie, potentially.

So there you have it. By process of elimination, the Penguins should be picking up either Kevin Hayes or Tyler Bozak any day now.

Nerd engineer by day, nerd writer at night. Kevin is the co-founder of The Point of Pittsburgh. He is the author of Creating Christ, a sci-fi novel available on Amazon.

13 Comments on Expanding The Scope On A Derick Brassard Trade

  1. Hi Kevin,

    Sorry. This is bad. Penguins should not go after a older aging 3C in their 30 ?s .. with a cap hit like that. They already strained at cap space. It isn ?t reasonable candidates for their age and contract.
    Bad idea. Carter and Bozak,Speezza,Zajac, Stephan no good. Sorry. Duchene would be great, but he will want 8-10 million..
    they need to go younger and have a better supporting cast for Crosby and Malkin..
    Give Blueger a chance on 4C
    I wouldn ?t give Oleskiak up to keep brutally bad Jack Johnson.

    Bozak has a bad contract with 30 something years of age.. Rutherford can find a way to flip Johnson like he did Scuderi..

    Oleskiak is better than Johnson. Very bad to give up young potential better defenseman to keep a 12 year bad veteran to lose M tt and Oleskiak. M tt isn ?t going anywhere either. Penguins are not trading M tt ..

    Patterson and Riikola are bottom pairing defenseman. Nothing more or less. I would figure them in a trade. See what Ethan Prow can do
    Charlie Coyle is better fit, imo

    You missed him. Coyle or Hayes are better options. Hayes might be steep price because he wants 6 million with some years added.

    Charlie Coyle
    Big body, Pk, better possession numbers than Brassard and use his linemates effectively to score goal goals. Great effective skater . He ?s fairly cheap at 3.2 million. One year left. Right handed shot. Can play C or Wing. He currently getting juggling around on aging Minnesota Wild. Penguins have been scouting Wild a lot, lately.

    Thoughts?

    • Kevin Creagh // January 21, 2019 at 9:11 PM //

      The whole premise of the article was to look for Centers between $5 and $7M, so I didn’t miss Coyle. He just wasn’t in that threshold under the parameters of the article.

      As for Duchene and Hayes, they would be treated as pure rentals. It doesn’t matter what they want in their next contract.

      Rutherford has committed to a quite a few 30+ year olds, both in extensions (Hornqvist) and FA’s (Johnson). So if he likes Bozak, he’s not going to be scared off by him.

  2. Guess? Yeah I know that. It would be idiocy to do this time around Penguins needs to go younger and have better players around their core with tight cap space. Charlie Coyle is Cheaper plus they can get him a cheap deal later on .

    Jack Johnson signing was a bad signing to this team. We can agree to disagree on that.

    Secondly Like I said .. it make no sense to go out after aging players on bad contracts, imo. Penguin needs to keep as much picks they can and get some decent pick too.
    Hornqvist is a different situation and Johnson deal was all – round bad . They will not win a cup with him.

    I don ?t Like it. It doesn ?t make sense at all.

    Hayes and Duchene are rentals where he shouldn ?t get up to much to them if he isn ?t going signing them longer term in the future to fit 3C role for this team. Penguins needs to go after 3C that will help then for a long term. Before Nikita plachenc or Believere get a chance to play with the Penguins..
    Penguins organization already have discussion to go tab bit younger and have better supporting cast that can win 50/50 puck battles.
    Option

    Charlie Coyle

    Kevin Hayes

    Matt Duchene

    Rutherford needs to cut his losses with Jack Johnson. Send Riikola to WBS.. Patterson too Or trade them both in a deal.

    Defenseman pairing needs to be with Shultz ?s return.
    Dumoulin-Letang
    M tt -Shultz
    ?- Oleskiak

    Either way Penguins needs to remove Johnson and have Shultz back to help Malkin.. Trade more wisely and not a Brassard like trade again..

    • Kevin Creagh // January 21, 2019 at 9:50 PM //

      I’m not sure where you think I approve of Jack Johnson, but nothing is further from the truth. His contract, though, is immovable at this point. He still has 4-1/2 years left on it. No one is taking that much term.

      • I ?m sorry.

        I don ?t believe he ?s immovable at this this point at all. I ?m sorry so if I put a way to suggest you like Jack Johnson.

        Let ?s be here. There ?s GMs that will take Jack Johnson ina heartbeat. Because GMs do make bad Signing and trades in the Nhl .

        GMs were willing to give top notch picks to Blue Jackets for him. Gm were willing to give him 6 million or get him for a first round pick. Anything can happen. Some team desperately need defenders and probably take him than flip him to get something go for him.

        I don ?t want to lose Jamie Oleskiak and damn sure not a great young defenseman like Olli M tt .. to be stuck with a player like johnson on this team.

        Penguins have options to for Jack Johnson. Flip him and get something very decent in a trade or buyout him out for 8 years with 1 million a year..

        Either way Rutherford do know how to fix his mistakes ..

        I ?m sorry. I ?m just frustrated with Johnson signing and deploying of him. Thst Penguins has better options with 4 million in cap space.
        It has become like Cole Situation where they keep the wrong player ( Hunwick)and let go of a better player than him.

  3. Also

    Jack Johnson was a minus-4 against Vegas on Saturday night. He ?s been on the ice for 54 goals against so far this season, almost 38 percent of all Penguins goals allowed. Great contract.

    Bad,bad contract. It ?s idiocy to give away better defenseman than him. They needs to find a way to deal him . Keep Oleskiak.

  4. *believe he can be moved in a trade.*

  5. Jon Malone // January 22, 2019 at 8:27 AM //

    What about Schenn? Also Im sure Edmonton would take Johnson with Brassard if we wanted RNH. They would like a defenseman and secondary scoring.

    • Kevin Creagh // January 22, 2019 at 8:44 AM //

      Both of them are mentioned in the article. Ultimately with Schenn, I thought that Bozak had more chance of producing points like with TOR, plus his elite faceoff ability.
      RNH is more expensive and doesn’t carry possession or win faceoffs particularly well. With Chiarelli at the helm, as evidenced by the Koskinen extension yesterday, anything is possible.

  6. I know this might be tough but with the Blackhawks rebuild and Anisimov’s cap hit(1.8 left this yr, 4M, 3M) decreasing the next two years (plus an obvious declined season on a pummeled team), he would be an ideal target for these penguins. He is 30 years old with some size and ability to play up and down the lineup with playoff experience. He has consistently averaged half a point a game regular season and playoffs throughout his career and i believe would be a great fit as 3rd line center in the PIT. The Hawks are rebuilding. I know there is risk involved but Brassard himself was supposed to fit and did not. I see a fit with term here. Keep Maata. Keep Oleksiak. If you can dump Johnson do it. If not Anisimov, i agree on Schenn, Nugent-Hopkins or Faksa. I am curious of opinions on this.

    • Kevin Creagh // January 22, 2019 at 2:42 PM //

      Cap hits don’t decrease, just the real salaries. His cap hit is $4.55M for the two seasons after this. Anisimov doesn’t do a lot for me, personally, as he doesn’t drive possession or win faceoffs at elite levels.

      The Hawks are rebuilding so they aren’t going to want Johnson, on top of a declining Seabrook and Keith, for the next 4 seasons.

  7. Sorry. Dumping Johnson is separate move i realize. I added that in as reply to the comments on the defensive situation.

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