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Josh Harrison Needs To Be Traded, But Who Wants Him?

Josh Harrison is a prime trade candidate, but is there a market for him?
Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

In a disappointing season, perhaps no Pirate veteran player has been more disappointing than Josh Harrison, yet he’s rarely faced the scrutiny of the fanbase or the media for it. Part of the reason is probably why I’m always reminded of William Faulkner’s novel The Sound and The Fury, which drew its title from Shakespeare’s Macbeth, when I watch Harrison — “…the sound and the fury, signifying nothing.”

Josh Harrison always looks like he’s playing hard and doing stuff, but at the end of the day his triple slash line in 2018 shows .262/.302/.358 for a 0.7 WAR and 79 wRC+, meaning he’s produced 21% less offense than an average major leaguer. Since signing his multi-year extension in 2014 (that this author did not like) on the heels of a top 10 NL MVP campaign, his yearly wRC+’s are:

  • 2015 — 98 wRC+
  • 2016 — 86 wRC+
  • 2017 — 104 wRC+
  • 2018 — 79 wRC+

Aside from barely nosing about average last year, on the weight of smacking a career-high 16 homers, Harrison has been trending downward since signing the deal. This year, with an anemic 0.096 isolated slugging percentage that would be the lowest of his career, Harrison only has 4 homers. He’s not even stealing bases and contributing in that fashion — after being a reliable source of double digit steals since 2014, Harrison has only swiped 3 to date.

So it would be great to trade Harrison in order to free up time for one or two legitimate prospects in Triple A. Although I’m not a huge believer of Kevin Newman in the long run at shortstop, I am intrigued enough to see him up here, either as Jordy Mercer’s replacement or to audition at second. Alternatively, I am very interested in seeing what Kevin Kramer has to offer at second after seeing him put forth an intriguing triple slash of .277/.340/.477 at Triple-A (129 wRC+).

If we assume that Josh Harrison will be traded on or around July 31st, that’s approximately 1/3 of the season remaining. That means he’ll be owed $3.33M of his $10M 2018 salary at the point, plus at least $1M for his buyout if the 2019-20 options are turned down. Asking a team to take on $4.33M for Harrison at his current level of production, even if a team values his versatility, is a lot. And naturally, his hamstring that forced him out of Sunday’s final game before the All-Star game can’t be something that will torpedo his value before the July 31st deadline, either.

But let’s take a look at what playoff contending teams (either 5 games out of their division or a wild card) even need a 2B, whether Harrison is an obvious upgrade or not.

  • Philadelphia Phillies — They have Cesar Hernandez as the starter and he’s having a very good year (.269/.377/.378, 111 wRC+, 2.3 WAR)
  • Atlanta Braves — Ozzie Albies is going to garner some MVP votes with his year for the surprising Braves (.288/.325/.529, 127 wRC+, 3.6 WAR)
  • Washington Nationals — Daniel Murphy has been injury-plagued this year and is working his way back to normal. His replacements were pretty bad. I could see the Nationals being interested, but more as a bench guy.
  • Milwaukee Brewers — The Brewers have been surprisingly excellent, but it hasn’t been because of Jonathan Villar. Villar has put up a .260/.311/.380 line that is only marginally better than Harrison. But here’s the thing — if the Pirates wouldn’t trade Juan Nicasio to the Cubs last year, why would they trade intra-division with the Brewers (or the Cubs)?
  • Chicago Cubs — Javier Baez has been a lot of fun to watch this year and is turning his tools into production (.289/.323/.559, 129 wRC+, 3.2 WAR)
  • St. Louis Cardinals — Kolten Wong and Greg Garcia have both been disappointing, but again, can’t see the Pirates trading Harrison in the division
  • L.A. Dodgers — I say this with no hyperbole — the Dodgers have a terrible collection of players at 2B and yes, Harrison would be an upgrade. His versatility would be highly valued in this organization and they obviously don’t mind his salary commitment.
  • Arizona Diamondbacks — Daniel Descalso has been solid offensively (.259/.362/.482, 125 wRC+) and shaky defensively, but I can’t see the D-Backs committing resources to this position
  • Colorado Rockies — DJ LeMahieu has been so-so (.277/.323/.432, 87 wRC+, 0.7 WAR), but not terrible enough that the pitching-needy Rockies would want to spend here.
  • San Francisco Giants — The Giants should be thinking about selling off, but I’m including them here because they’re 3 games out of the division. If Harrison were to join the Giants, he’d have to displace Alen Hanson as the starter (snicker). The Giants are so tight to the luxury tax that they shipped Austin Jackson and his $3M out the door to the Rangers recently.
  • Boston Red Sox — They have the Majors best record, but it’s not because of Brock Holt/Eduardo Nunez at 2B, filling in for the injured Dustin Pedroia. Holt is the theoretical starter (.282/.359/.379, 102 wRC+, 1.0 WAR). They could look to Harrison, but I could see them just adding to the bullpen and riding this juggernaut into the playoffs.
  • New York Yankees — Gleyber Torres is probably going to win AL ROY (.294/.350/.555, 143 wRC+, 1.6 WAR), so that’s a big ‘nah’.
  • Cleveland Indians — Jason Kipnis has been going downhill for a while now, but the Indians owe him a lot of money this year and next, so it’s hard to see the cost-conscious Indians adding on top of that.
  • Houston Astros — The Astros have Jose Altuve at 2B. That is all.
  • Seattle Mariners — Dee Gordon has filled in at 2B while Robinson Cano has been serving his PED suspension plus his broken hand recovery. With Cano ineligible for the playoffs and Gordon not ripping the cover off the ball (.285/.305/.352, 85 wRC+), plus Jerry DiPoto’s love of trading, this a possibility.
  • Oakland A’s — The A’s are surging and the reports are out that the team wants to extend Jed Lowrie (.290/.362/.501, 139 wRC+, 3.6 WAR), so there’s not a match here.

So in summary, I can see the Dodgers as a viable trade partner and maybe the Nationals and Mariners. That’s a pretty short list. Also keep in mind that Harrison wouldn’t be the best 2B candidate on the market, either. The Reds should be trading Scooter Gennett, a player clearly at the top of his value that could return a piece or two for the next great Reds team, but it appears they may be Reds’ing this one and thinking of extending him. Asdrubal Cabrera and Starlin Castro should also be in play, too, and having far better seasons.

Of course the calculus changes if a team wants him as a bench guy, but then the Pirates would probably have to pay down the lion’s share of his salary to make that happen.

If the Pirates want to move Harrison for just salary relief, that’s their prerogative. But if they want actual talent back, even of the low level-lottery ticket variety, they’ll have to be willing to eat most of Harrison’s salary and maybe include a moderate prospect of their own as a sweetener (see Gray, Tristan). On the surface, fans may not understand why a “prospect” is included, but if a higher grade of prospect is returned that is how baseball business is done in 2018.

Nerd engineer by day, nerd writer at night. Kevin is the co-founder of The Point of Pittsburgh. He is the author of Creating Christ, a sci-fi novel available on Amazon.

20 Comments on Josh Harrison Needs To Be Traded, But Who Wants Him?

  1. I would agree with both your assessment of Harrison’s value and his market. While the Pirates should not be in full-on fire sale mode, they should take the opportunity to see what Kramer and Newman have to offer.

  2. I have always considered Mighty Mouse to be overrated by both the Pittsburgh media and fans. He has always been at best a utility player. Hopefully the emergence of talent at AAA will finally rid the Pirates of this no plate discipline utility infielder.

  3. His injury compounds this issue, but I will say that his current (July Premium) Surplus Value at $4.23M. That’s not amazing. I think the trade chips have to be Dickerson and Vasquez to get real return, but w/ this information and the breakdown of options you proposed, I say the most likely destinations are LAD and SEA.

    LAD sends Mitchell White RHP (ETA 2019, FV 45 or $3.4M) who is a tall righty w/ a + FB and a + CB OR they could send Jordan Sheffield RHP (ETA 2019, FV 45 or $3.4M) but he’s small, erratic and uninteresting to me.

    SEA sends Braden Bishop CF(ETA 2018, FV 40 $2.0M) and Max Povse RHP (ETA 2018, FV 40 $2.0M). These guys are both probably considered more organizational depth than prospects, but I’ll take 2 wildcards for a depressed value Harrison, at this point. I think the FO still goes after players that can help in 2019, which is fine.. I guess. Bishop is a defense first outfielder and Povse is a 6’8 righty. Again, lotto tickets at best.. cheap org depth at worst.

  4. Bob Stover // July 16, 2018 at 12:38 PM //

    I think they should keep Jay-Hay and jettison S-ROD, and then promote both Newmans to play 2nd and short. Jay-Hay should be our bench player. He can play four positions defensively and he can at times be a potent pinch hitter. Freese has to go as well to make enough roster room for that to happen. The other alternative is to demote Bell and let Cervelli play first base, with Freese backing him up.

  5. Peter Duda // July 16, 2018 at 12:41 PM //

    Sorry, but Mighty Mouse Harrison is not worth the #3 person in the Dodgers Farm System.. That is simply not going to happen.

  6. Peter Duda // July 16, 2018 at 12:43 PM //

    Still no plate discipline

  7. RipOffTheBandaid // July 16, 2018 at 1:13 PM //

    Maybe Harrison can be squirreled away on the bench but he’ll be pretty peeved watching Kramer and it’s a bad look for an impending FA. This mgmt team being the haven it is for veterans is probably hesitant to dfa him (assuming they can still buy him out). I say ship him off with $2m for a 25 man spot.

    • Bob Stover // July 16, 2018 at 4:56 PM //

      Jay Hay is only a pending FA if the Pirates don’t exercise his 2019 option. If they can’t trade him, they’ll buy him out and he can peddle himself as a FA. The Pirates are under no obligation to do it for him.

  8. Bob Stover // July 16, 2018 at 1:21 PM //

    Why would you send Harrison away, with cash and a prospect, for a prospect who can and probably will miss, when it only costs the team $1.5 million to buy out both of his option years in 2019 and 2020? I see no clear value in trading him at the moment and relatively little overall cost if they can’t trade him in the off season. I really don’t care how it looks to Harrison if they bench him in favor of younger prospects. Agents remind us constantly that this is a bidness, it’s not personal. That cuts both ways.

  9. I agree with Bob Stover’s points, however Harrison as a utility guy only works if SRod is sent packing. Based upon past comments by the GM and Mgr., I don’t see that happening. Freese may be worth a little at this point, since he has been effective lately, and if he goes then both Harrison and SRod could be kept as utility players. They would be very expensive utility guys, but as already noted, no one will want them in a trade.

    • As was made in an earlier article on this site, SeanRod is already a sunk cost. The only thing keeping him around achieves is to keep the club from seeing what Kramer and/or Newman can do.

    • Bob Stover // July 16, 2018 at 5:00 PM //

      It’s cheaper to cut S-ROD than Jay-Hay at the moment. They only owe part of this season to S-ROD. They owe Jay-Hay about 45% of his 10 million contract this year and $1.5 million to buy out his two options. They only still owe S-ROD about $385,000 for the remainder of his contract.

  10. Peter Duda // July 16, 2018 at 2:40 PM //

    And Seattle sends their #5 and #7 Prospect for Mighty Mouse That return was not received in the McCutcheon deal. Fans always overrate the value of their players

    • Bob Stover // July 16, 2018 at 5:03 PM //

      Not to beat a dead horse, but if the Mariners really wanted Mighty Mouse, he comes with two team options and thus two years of control. The Pirates had only one option year remaining on Cutch’s contract when they traded him, and Cutch is older than Jay Hay.

    • Just so we’re clear, and I think most are aware of this, all farm systems are not equal. You could argue that everyone in the Seattle farm system (excluding maybe Kyle Lewis) would be a JAG in Atlanta’s farm system. Christian Pache is #5 in the Braves system and he probably, single handedly, has more value at $42.9M than the entire Seattle system. I don’t think that the offer suggested is ludicrous.

      For reference:
      Andrew McCutchen’s surplus value this past summer was $11.52M (Weighted WAR of 3.09*Cost of 1 WAR ($8.5M) Minus his contract of 1/$14.75M) So taking that into account, Crick (FV 45 and Value of $3.4M) and Reynolds’ (FV 50 and Value of $25.0M) values totaled $28.4M. That may be an aggressive FV for Reynolds, so if you put him at a depth/bench FV of 45, that puts his value at $7.2M. That’s $10.60M value for McCutchen and that’s in the ballpark of a fair deal. Looking entirely at output.. that excludes what he meant to me as a player and as a member of the community.

      The point I’m trying to make is that the trade IDEA proposed is just to show the haul that could be had for someone like JHay based entirely on his output.. no other factors.

  11. dodgers are trying to stay under luxury tax, they will be mind full of harrisons salary. they certainly wont go over for a utility man with a negative WAR. simply put he doesnt have much value with his injuries and performance. not that hes bad he has other great qualities.

    Keep j-hay, hope he improves and consider trading in the off season when he (hopefully) as more value, or decline his options.

  12. Peter Duda // July 22, 2018 at 3:04 PM //

    Maybe we can get a Bag of Balls to be named later for him

  13. I can’t see the Pirates bringing him back next year so he needs to be dealt. Since they are on the hook for his salary anyway they should be willing to include money if that is a hold up with a potential trade partner.

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