Since last week, here’s an update on the women’s NCAA bracket changes. I’ve started adding seeds to the top teams and bubble teams to give some folks an indication as to where I’d currently seed the very top as well as the bubble. I’ll add more seeds in the upcoming weeks.
Locally, West Virginia is looking better by the game. The Mountaineers have only two losses since Thanksgiving. Those two losses are against Baylor and Texas – teams that are both in the top 6 in the polls. Duquesne hurt themselves a little bit, but not much, by splitting games against top 50 teams in George Washington and St. Bonaventure. I have them as a #10 seed.
*** For this bracket, I am presuming NO stolen bids from a team not listed as “in” winning their conference tournament. For example, should Wright State upset Green Bay in the Horizon Tournament they would steal a bid from someone else as Green Bay would still make the dance. This would then subtract a bid from one of the teams listed as “in”.
Conference by conference breakdown
Probably a two bid league, but a possibility of a 1 or 3 bid league exists
Bubble, in for now (as a #8 seed) – George Washington after thumping Duquesne. Normally a #8 isn’t on the bubble necessarily, but one bad loss in A-10 play could put the Colonials right back to out.
Bubble, second four in – Duquesne (#10 seed).
Bubble, second four out – St. Bonaventure
Keep an eye on – Dayton (are now 2-5 in A10 play in a row after their injury woes but have amassed six top 100 wins – tied for 18th in the NCAA)
American Athletic Conference
Probably a two bid league, possibly a one bid league
UConn – #1 overall seed
Bubble – South Florida. I’m convinced if you’re judging solely based on talent that the Bulls are a top 25 team. However, USF’s road to the NCAAs is challenging after a road overtime loss to Memphis as they don’t have many opportunities left in AAC play, and a road game at Louisville seems daunting as well. I currently have them as a 9 seed, but the future schedule doesn’t leave a much room for error.
6-7 bids likely, possibility of 8 bids
Notre Dame – #1 seed line, #2 overall
In – Florida St, Syracuse
Virtual Lock – Miami. While they only have three top 100 wins for now, the Canes are a top 25 team on talent with plenty of ACC opportunities.
Now In – Louisville (#5 seed) after a road win at NC St
Bubble, but will likely work their way in – Duke (#10 currently)
Moved onto the bubble, I’m putting them in the field for now on the last four in – NC State (win over Virginia Tech, and their out-of conference win over Villanova is looking better after ‘Nova beat both Seton Hall and St. John’s)
Keep an eye on – Boston College – They’ve fallen out after a bad home loss to Wake Forest as they are now 1-5 in ACC play, but are still capable of making a run in the ACC.
Probably a 5-6 bid league
In – Baylor (my fourth #1 seed), Texas (#2 seed), Oklahoma, Oklahoma St
Likely In – West Virginia (I’d have them as a #8 seed currently)
Bubble, last team IN right now (#11 seed) – Kansas State (Helped themselves with wins over TCU, Kansas, Texas Tech)
Keep an eye on – Iowa State
2-4 bid league depending on how things shape out
Likely in – DePaul, Seton Hall
Bubble – St. John’s (second four in, #10 seed), Villanova (second four out)
This is easily the hardest conference to predict how many bids it will receive. I won’t right now with so many teams jockeying for position. My guess is though that they will get more than the five bids I have the Big 10 currently projected for.
In – Ohio State (#2 seed), Maryland (#3 seed), Michigan State
Virtual Locks – Purdue, Nebraska. These could easily change downward if these teams lose a couple in a row in the unpredictable Big 10.
Bubble, Last four IN for now – Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have only one top 60 RPI win – Green Bay. There’s plenty more chances however.
Bubble, Second four out – Iowa. Loss to Penn State was a killer. Only one top 50 win thus far.
Bubble, Third four out – Northwestern. They have the one HUGE win over Ohio State, but not much else worthy of consideration yet.
Bubble, also third four out – Indiana.
Keep an eye on – Michigan
6 bids almost certain, possibility of a seventh
Locks – Stanford (#2 seed), Oregon St (#2 seed), Arizona State (#3 seed), UCLA, USC, Washington
Bubble – Washington State (are they ever not a bubble team? First four out), Utah (second four out)
8 bids likely, 9th possible
South Carolina (#1 seed)
Locks – Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Mississippi St, Florida
Virtual Locks – Missouri
Bubble, 9 seed for now – Georgia. The Bulldogs seemed like a virtual lock before they were upset by a mediocre LSU team Sunday. Now they’re fighting for their NCAA life. Despite four top 50 wins, they have two sub-100 losses.
Bubble, third four out for now – Vanderbilt
2 bids likely, possibly a third
Likely In – BYU
Bubble – Last four in for now even though I don’t think they’re that good – Santa Clara (#11 seed). A win at Stanford goes a long way…
Bubble, first four out – San Diego
Bubble, third four out – St. Mary’s and Gonzaga both
Leagues that could steal bids if their #1 team doesn’t win the league tourney
Horizon – Green Bay (#10 seed currently)
CUSA – UTEP, Western Kentucky (First four out)
MAC – Ohio (Would be on the second four out list)