Comments on: All Hail Ivan Nova, King Of The 5th Starters

By: jpksu

jpksu — Thu, 25 Oct 2018 16:04:25 +0000

We should certainly trade for Ahmed! That would be a huge get for this team. Significantly improved defense and marginally better offense at a lower cost

By: JPksu

JPksu — Thu, 25 Oct 2018 16:02:57 +0000

Why pay $9M to a guy with a #4 ceiling? I’d rather go get a LHP with #2 potential (i.e. Duffy) and pay $15M

By: Kevin Creagh

Kevin Creagh — Sat, 20 Oct 2018 16:38:17 +0000

The D-Backs would get 2-3 prospects, albeit not great ones, in return for taking Nova. Nova eats 180+ innings for a rebuilding team, they get a chance to evaluate Nick Kingham, Kevin Newman, other prospect. It’s not like Ahmed is bringing a huge return by himself.

By: Jake Smail

Jake Smail — Sat, 20 Oct 2018 15:52:55 +0000

No real number crunching to come to the conclusion that Archer could be a ‘top of the rotation guy’. That opinion mostly comes from me liking his stuff. With that said, his peripherals have been quite good for a few years, and coming into the season ZiPS had him projected at a 3.27 ERA while still pitching in the AL East. I don’t think he’ll be Scherzer-esque, but I absolutely think he could put up numbers better than AJ Burnett had while he was here, and I considered him a top of the rotation guy while he was here.

By: Lee Foo

Lee Foo — Sat, 20 Oct 2018 12:21:24 +0000

Philip,

I agree with this statement. At his age, he is what he is:

” please explain why Archer is constantly referred to as a “top of the rotation” guy. Or when you say “top” do you mean top half?”

By: Lee Foo

Lee Foo — Sat, 20 Oct 2018 12:20:17 +0000

Kevin Creagh….why would the D’Backs do that deal? I like it from our end, but it sucks as a D’back fan. My sister and brother in law are D’back fans and they scoffed at that deal.

By: Phillip C-137

Phillip C-137 — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 21:04:26 +0000

“Chris Archer has the upside to be a top of the rotation guy”

I guess if people say this often enough and fervently enough I’m supposed to eventually agree with it, but so far I have resisted joining this cult of “Archer’s a #1”. (Full disclosure – I was a member of the “Glasnow Can
Be A #1” group.)

Exactly what numbers are being extrapolated, combined, pureed and filtered to come up with this narrative? Is he still getting credit for what he did 4 or 5 years ago? (If so, let’s get Maddux, he had a great year in 2000.)
Or is it that #1 is just relative per team?

Archer had a 2018 Pirate ERA of 4.30. This is the 5TH best ERA among the starters (Williams, Taillon, Musgrove, Nova then Archer).

Quality Starts is a flawed stat, but it does tell you something. In 2018 all of the 25-26 years olds (Williams, Taillon, Musgrove and Kuhl) had QS percentages of 50% of more over all of their starts. (Taillon was best at 20 in 32 for a 63% QS percentage.) Nova (age 31) had a QS percentage of 48% and Archer (age 30) was at 40%. (PS Archer’s best QS % was 63% – in 2014.)

The last time Archer had 3 consecutive 7.0 IP or more outings was in May-June of 2017 (21.2 IP 8 ER). He’s had 5 such streaks in his career – 2 in 2013, 1 in 2014, 1 in 2015 and 1 in 2017. (7 IP may be arbitrary, but it’s the number I went with because shouldn’t your Ace do more than just the accepted minimum?)

While I agree Nova is perfectly acceptable as the #5, please explain why Archer is constantly referred to as a “top of the rotation” guy. Or when you say “top” do you mean top half?

By: Kevin Creagh

Kevin Creagh — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 18:13:30 +0000

Earlier this week, I proposed trading Nova plus 2 mid-range prospects to the D-Backs for LHP Robbie Ray and SS Nick Ahmed. The salaries are a wash, so you’re filling two spots of need for one.

By: NormC

NormC — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 18:05:24 +0000

Based upon performance I don’t see Williams as a #5. As to Nova he is OK as your analysis shows. My question is whether or not the Pirates can and should be paying the #5 starter $9+M. Granted most of the other starters are making minimal type salaries so overall starters salaries are relatively low. But….could we use $7-8M of Nova’s salary, plus some more dollars, to find a player who has HR power which we desperately need? The trade off is finding a guy who can play most every day and win some games with his bat versus a pitcher who gets you 7-9 wins a year.

By: Silkychubs

Silkychubs — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 16:28:16 +0000

I think the problem is they have two #5 starters i n Nova and Williams. I think they should see if a team would be willing to pay for a #2-#3 Trevor Williams, even though he’s really a #5. Then they could perhaps upgrade that spot in the rotation if at all possible.